In the box office lexicon, a “drop” refers to how much a movie’s revenues have fallen in its second outing, following the opening weekend. The drop is important, as it offers a pretty accurate way to project the final outcome of that particular film’s life in theaters around the world. It’s also a tool that helps us understand how much of the debut’s numbers are due to marketing and hype and how those numbers reflect the audience’s response instead.
This premise would be that Mission Impossible – Fallout had a very auspicious drop: in the US, just 42.8% and a second outing that generated $35 million. It’s a lower drop than any other film of the Mission Impossible franchise, in line with the drops of films such as Black Panther and Wonder Woman. That number also tells us that the sixth installment of Tom Cruise’s latest and very well reviewed film could end up being bigger than The Fate of the Furious, which generated $226 million last year. It could even perform better than War of the Worlds, Tom Cruise’s biggest domestic result of all time with $234 million.
Overseas, the drop for Fallout was a little steeper: 53%. But after 10 days of release, the title has generated $330 million. Korea alone is good for $41.5 million, the UK for $19 million, India for $13 million and after only three days in theaters, Japan has generated $8 million. With China set to open on August 31 and with a few other major markets still to have their debut, it looks like Tom Cruise may have his first film to gross over $700 million globally and that he may even reach $800 million.
Back to the domestic market, the very positive hold of Mission Impossible produced an unusual result: a Disney movie not making it to the top on its first outing. Directed by Marc Forster and with Ewan McGregor in the titular role, Christopher Robin generated $25 million. In just a few countries overseas it added an extra $5 million. In the new Disney live-action/CGI effort, Robin reunites with Tigger, Piglet and with Winnie the Pooh. And as odd as it sounds, this may explain why the film has not been approved and may never make it to China: because many Chinese use Pooh’s images to parody Chinese President Xi Jinping and censors are busy blocking anything that resembles or mentions the pudgy bear on social media or anywhere.
There was another debut in the US, and that did not go too well: starring Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon the action comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me had a $12.4 million debut. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again was fourth with $9.1 million, followed by Denzel Washington’s The Equalizer 2, with $8.8 million. The ABBA musical did not exactly resonate with the Chinese audiences: the second biggest market in the world produced just $323,000. But the drop in Mamma Mia!’s 53 other markets was just 36% and the sequel is now 28% above the original. Thanks mainly to Japan, where it grossed $50 million so far, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom keeps attracting theatergoers and has now reached a global total of $1.260 million. With $1.047 million, Incredibles 2 is now the highest-grossing animated release ever. Sony’s Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation has grossed $300 million globally.
By examining the global chart, two more titles need to be mentioned. The first is Along With The Gods: The Last 49 Days, a sequel which had a $45.8 million debut and is now the 2nd highest-grossing movie at the Korean box office. Shifting back to China, Hello Mr. Billionaire keeps attracting fans and after two weeks has reached the $300 million mark.